Triveni Turbine (TRIV IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Mixed Q4, Enquiry pipeline gathering pace – Downgrade to ‘HOLD’

Triveni Turbine (TRIV) reported a mixed quarterly performance with revenue growth of 26.3% YoY, while EBITDA margin contracted by 354bps YoY to 18.8% largely impacted by adverse project mix, lower aftermarket contribution and execution of strategic low-margin NTPC energy storage orders. However, order inflows remained healthy at Rs7.5bn (+19% YoY) driven by strong export demand and robust traction in aftermarket offerings the enquiry pipeline strengthened materially during the year, with global product inquiries rising to ~18GW while domestic inquiries doubled YoY to ~7GW, supported by thermal power expansion, industrial capex revival, renewable energy investments and rising data centre-linked power demand. Export order conversion environment is gradually improving despite geopolitical disruptions, with management expecting exports to outgrow domestic business in FY27. New growth avenues including geothermal, ORC, CO2-based energy storage, heat pumps and SMR-linked opportunities continue to gain traction, particularly across the US and Southeast Asia. Additionally, data centre-related opportunities now account for a significant portion of the inquiry pipeline supported by rising demand for combined-cycle power infrastructure and AI-driven energy investments. The aftermarket and API turbine businesses also continue to witness improving momentum, while the US subsidiary is expected to move towards profitability in FY27 supported by better operating leverage and improving local demand traction. The stock is trading at a P/E of 45.5x/38.0x on FY27/28E EPS. We roll forward to Mar’28E and downgrade our rating from ‘Accumulate’ to ‘Hold’ given recent rally in the stock price and valuing the stock at a PE of 38x Mar’28E (37x Sep’27E earlier) arriving at a TP of Rs638 (Rs585 earlier).