Life Insurance – Jul-Sep’25 Earnings Preview – Growth subdued; GST exemption to be a drag
Published on 06 Oct 2025
Private life insurers have seen tepid growth in 5MFY25 (8% YoY); expect Sep-25 volumes to remain subdued till the period of GST exemption kicks in. We expect the share of ULIP to keep moderating as demand shifts to the non-linked segment. Expect 2QFY26E VNB margins to be range-bound as we await clarity on the impact of GST exemption. Valuations continue to remain undemanding. Maintain BUY on Max FS (TP of Rs 1,850 at 2.0x FY27E P/EV) and HDFC Life (TP of Rs 900 at 2.6x FY27E P/EV). Key monitorable from 2QFY26E results are: (1) Growth guidance for FY26/ FY27E (2) Margin outlook and impact of GST exemption.
