NTPC (NTPC IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Good year with strong execution pipeline – BUY
Published on 24 May 2026
NTPC delivered a healthy FY26 performance with standalone adjusted PAT at INR195bn, up 8% YoY, supported by a 4% increase in regulated equity and improvement in coal plant PAF by 20bps to 90.1% in FY26. Core profitability remained strong with implied FY26 core RoE (excluding other income) improving to 17.4% versus 16.5% YoY (led by better plant efficiency). Looking ahead, NTPC has reiterated an annual capacity addition target of ~10GW across FY27E–FY29E, with NGEL targeting ~8GW annually, while the consolidated under-construction pipeline remains robust at 34GW vs 33GW QoQ. The company also indicated an evolving nuclear investment strategy, targeting ~30% contribution toward the Ministry of Power’s 100GW nuclear ambition by 2047. Overall, NTPC’s regulated cost-plus model continues to provide stable RoE, predictable cash flows and low earnings volatility, reinforcing its positioning as a low-risk compounder rather than a high-growth story. Stock trades at 1.9x FY28E BV (EPS CAGR expected at 7% over FY26-28E) and we maintain BUY with a FY28E TP of INR450/share (earlier INR423 as we factored CMP of NGEL in revised TP) based on SoTP valuation, along with ~2.5% dividend yield support (DPS of INR 9 in FY26).
