Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL IN) – Q1FY27 Result Update – Higher crude costs, SAED weigh on margins – HOLD
Published on 16 Jul 2026
MRPL's Q1FY27 EBITDA missed street estimates, primarily due to higher cost of sales driven by elevated crude prices following the West Asia conflict. EBITDA stood at INR13.2bn (PLe: INR10.9bn; BBGe: INR15.2bn) vs INR17.8bn in Q4FY26. Adj. PAT (ex exceptional income from prior-period product price revisions) improved to INR5.6bn (PLe: INR3.6bn; BBGe: INR6.9bn) from INR1.2bn in Q4FY26 and a loss of INR2.7bn in Q1FY26, supported by the lower effective tax rate following the transition to the new tax regime. Throughput increased 1.8% QoQ/25.9% YoY to 4.4mmt, while implied GRM stood at USD8.3/bbl in Q1FY27 vs the reported GRM of USD11.2/bbl in Q4FY26, reflecting the impact of the Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED). Going forward, we estimate GRMs of USD7.8/7.4/bbl and throughput of 17.7/18.0mmt for FY27E/FY28E, respectively. We maintain our 'Hold' rating with a revised target price of INR150 (earlier INR142), based on 6.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA, as near-term earnings remain exposed to SAED. We continue to assign an option value of INR23/share to the chemicals project, which remains a few years away from commercialization.
