TCI Express (TCIEXP IN) – Q4FY26 Result Update – Volume growth remains steady – BUY
Published on 30 May 2026
We cut our EPS estimates by 15%/17% for FY27E/FY28E as we fine tune our volume growth forecast and EBITDA margin assumptions amid persistent inflation and heightened competition. While TCIEXP IN’s operational performance was broadly in-line with our estimate with EBITDA margin of 9.6% (PLe 10.2%), PAT missed our estimates due to higher depreciation and interest charge as 2 sorting centers have shifted to long-term lease resulting in capitalization of rental cost as per IND-AS 116. Nonetheless, the growth spark evident in the last quarter continues with volumes increasing 4.7% YoY to 267,000 MT led by stable performance in surface express business and improved traction in the multi-modal segment. We expect volume CAGR of 5% over the next 2 years with EBITDA margin of 11.1%/12.1% in FY27E/FY28E. The stock trades at 20x/16x our FY27E/FY28E EPS estimates. Retain BUY with a TP of INR575 (19x FY28E EPS; no change in target multiple).
