Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC IN) – Q1FY27 Result Update – Volume outlook trimmed amid muted Q1 production – ACCUMULATE
Published on 06 Aug 2026
Oil and gas production volumes (inc. JV) were in line with our estimates at 5.0mmt and 4.9bcm (PLe: 5.0mmt and 4.9bcm), respectively. Crude realization came in above expectations at USD99.5/bbl (PLe: USD95.9/bbl). As a result, revenue beat estimates at INR464.6bn (PLe: INR438.6bn; BBGe: INR449.0bn), up 29.3% QoQ and 45.2% YoY. EBITDA also exceeded estimates at INR294.5bn (PLe: INR265.4bn; BBGe: INR272.6bn), rising 65.7% QoQ and 57.9% YoY, driven by higher realizations and lower other expenses. PAT came in above estimates at INR170.3bn (PLe: INR149.2bn; BBGe: INR142.1bn), supported by lower interest, survey and exploratory well costs. We revise our FY27E standalone production estimates to 18.9mmt for oil and 19.4bcm for gas (earlier: 19.8mmt and 20.1bcm). For FY28E, we now estimate oil and gas production at 19.7mmt and 20.4bcm, respectively (earlier: 20.6mmt and 21.2bcm), broadly in line with the company's production guidance. We maintain 'Accumulate' rating with a revised TP of INR273 (earlier: INR266), based on 8x FY28E EPS for the standalone business, along with the value of investments.
