Oil India (OINL IN) – Q1FY27 Result Update – Oil production outlook strengthens – ACCUMULATE
Published on 10 Aug 2026
OINL reported a beat on EBITDA at INR40.8bn (PLe: INR36.2bn; BBGe: INR37.1bn), aided by 11.4% YoY growth in oil production volumes and higher crude oil realizations, partly offset by an 8.5% decline in gas production. PAT came in-line with our est at INR28.7bn (PLe: INR27.6bn; BBGe: INR22.5bn), up 60.4% QoQ and 2.5x YoY. Management achieved its highest-ever daily crude production of 11,017mt/day on 3rd Aug’26, driven by well intervention and workover activities, and expects to sustain a quarterly oil production run-rate of ~1mmt in FY27. OINL expects to achieve 3.9mmt in FY27 and >4.0mmt in FY28. On gas production, OINL guided to reach 3.8bcm in FY28, with a significant jump expected from Q1FY29 once pipeline infrastructure is fully in place. Driven by this optimism and Q1FY27 performance, we increased our production expectations for oil and gas by 7%/2% to 3.8mmt/3.2bcm in FY27 and by 8%/4% to 4.0mmt/3.5bcm in FY28. We expect Brent crude at USD85.5/75.0/bbl in FY27/FY28. Maintain “Accumulate”, valuing the standalone business at 10x FY28E Adj EPS and adding the value of investments in NRL and other JVs, we arrive at a TP of Rs511 (earlier: Rs455).
