Oil & Gas – Jul-Sep’26 Earnings Preview – OMCs lead earnings recovery; CGDs under pressure
Published on 07 Oct 2026
We expect aggregate sales growth of 4.1%/39.4% QoQ/YoY in Q2FY27. EBITDA/PAT are expected to decline 5.6%/11.1% YoY, but improve 41.2%/51.9% QoQ, led by a recovery in OMC’s and a resilient upstream. Brent averaged USD91.4/bbl in Q2FY27 vs. USD96.9/bbl in Q1FY27. Upstream earnings of ONGC/OIL should remain supported by healthy crude realizations, albeit with some QoQ moderation. OMC performance is expected to improve sequentially, supported by stronger refining margins, although implied GMM’s are likely to remain under pressure, albeit with a sequential improvement. CGDs are expected to remain under pressure, as higher spot LNG prices and declining APM gas availability outweigh the benefit of price hikes, resulting in lower EBITDA/scm QoQ despite healthy volume growth. GAIL and PLNG are expected to deliver mixed performance, GAIL EBITDA is expected at INR46.7bn vs. INR63.8bn in Q1FY27, with the decline primarily reflecting normalization in the Trading business while PLNG utilization remains broadly stable. We remain positive on MGL and IGL, supported by healthy volume growth and an expected improvement in margins as gas supply constraints normalize and the impact of price hikes is captured fully.
