Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals (MRPL IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – Strong refining performance drive EBITDA beat – HOLD
Published on 15 Oct 2026
MRPL’s Q2FY27 EBITDA beat estimates at INR32.8bn (PLe:INR23.3bn; BBGe: INR30.2bn), vs INR13.2bn in Q1FY27, driven by lower QoQ crude procurement costs and elevated refining cracks. Implied GRM stood at USD14.8/bbl, vs USD8.3/bbl in Q1FY27 and USD9.1/bbl in Q2FY26. Adj. PAT, after excluding the exceptional loss arising from the fire incident, improved to INR19.7bn from INR5.6bn in Q1FY27. Throughput declined 5.6% QoQ and YoY to 4.2mmt, primarily due to maintenance shutdowns during the quarter. Following the strong 1HFY27 performance, we raise our FY27E GRM assumption to USD11.3/bbl vs USD7.8/bbl. However, we expect GRMs to normalize to USD7.4/7.5/bbl in FY28E/FY29E as geopolitical disruptions ease and refining cracks revert towards normalized levels. We maintain “HOLD” rating while revising our TP to INR180 (earlier: INR165), based on 6.0x FY28E EV/EBITDA. We continue to assign an option value of INR23/share to the chemicals project, which remains several years away from commercialization.
