Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL IN) – Q2FY27 Result Update – EBITDA rebounds on strong refining performance – HOLD
Published on 23 Oct 2026
Standalone EBITDA turned positive at INR90.7bn (including FX loss of INR3.0bn), beating street estimates (PLe: INR-20.9bn; BBGe: INR-1.4bn), supported by strong operational performance and modest inventory gains. PAT stood at INR34.8bn (PLe: INR-25.2bn; BBGe: INR-20.5bn), also ahead of estimates, although declining 9.1% YoY due to higher interest expenses and taxes. Pre-SAED GRM improved to USD32.2/bbl from USD23.8/bbl in Q1FY27. Management expects HRRL to operate at full capacity by end of Q3FY27. We raise FY27E reported GRM estimate to USD16.0/bbl (from USD8.7/bbl), reflecting strong 1HFY27 GRMs amid elevated crack spreads. We maintain FY28E reported GRM estimate at USD7.9/bbl and expect FY29E GRM of USD7.7/bbl. Implied GMM is estimated at INR4.5/ltr and INR4.4/ltr for FY28E and FY29E, respectively, assuming crude prices normalize as geopolitical tensions ease. Maintain ‘Hold’ with a revised TP of INR342 (earlier: INR355), based on 1.1x (previous: 1.1x) Sep’28E P/BV.
