Metals & Mining – Apr-Jan’26 Earnings Preview – Strong Q1 aided by pricing; all eyes on demand
Published on 08 Jul 2026
We expect our metals coverage universe to deliver strong operating performance in Q1FY27, with revenue/EBITDA/PAT growth of 20%/26%/22% YoY (-1%/0%/4% QoQ). There was a steady rise in HRC and long product prices till Apr’26 aided by good demand, lower steel imports, and rising Chinese prices, which ultimately led to improved steel pricing across continents. However, during May/Jun’26, weaker infra spending by GoI, tightness in liquidity led by high commodity inflation, and seasonal issues led to weak demand, especially in long products. We expect steel universe NSR to improve by INR4,000-5,500/t QoQ supported by higher HRC prices and the revision of contractual volumes. Coking coal, P&F and other costs linked to crude inflation, including freight, also increased. We expect EBITDA/t to improve by INR1,500-2,500 QoQ and volumes to improve 5-12% YoY for the steel universe aided by resilient demand amid an uncertain global macro environment. Despite higher coking coal prices, flat spot spreads remained above INR26k/t throughout the quarter, with average Q1 spreads improving 23% QoQ to INR26.6k/t. Our top picks are JINDALST, JDSL & USM.
