NTPC (NTPC IN) – Q1FY27 Result Update – Healthy Q1, plan laid out until FY37 – BUY
Published on 28 Jul 2026
NTPC delivered a healthy Q1FY27 performance with standalone adjusted PAT up 16% YoY, supported by a improvement in coal plant PAF by 50bps to 93.4% in Q1FY27, change in generation mix. Core profitability remained strong with implied Q1 core RoE (excluding other income) improving to 19.7% versus 16.7% YoY. In Q1FY27E NTPC has commissioned 1.8GW and has target of 10GW commissioning in FY27E. NTPC Green FY28E target of 8GW hinges on timely commissioning of transmission infra. It is also planning for 3.3GWh of BESS in FY27 to address curtailment issues in NTPC green. NTPC has laid out capex plan for capacity upto FY37E with addition CAGR of 9% / 11% over 2026-32 / 2032-37 respectively. And other key takeaways is coal share in 2026-32 capacity addition (of 59GW) is 17% and 2032-37 (of 100GW) is 13%. It has 16GW of coal capacity in construction stage and plans for additional 7GW for its FY37E capacity addition target. Over mid-term it has annual capacity addition of ~10GW across FY27E–FY29E. Overall, Stock trades at 1.7x FY28E standalone BV and 1.5x FY28E consol BV (standalone EPS CAGR expected at 7% over FY26-28E) and we maintain BUY with a FY28E TP of INR450/share based on SoTP valuation, along with ~2.8% dividend yield support (DPS of INR 9.7 in FY27).
