Vedanta Power (VEDPOWER IN) – Analyst Meet Update – Building a thermal platform for the next decade – Not Rated
Published on 25 Jun 2026
We attended the analyst meet of Vedanta Power, which is currently among the top five private thermal power producers by installed capacity and is targeting a position among the top three players by FY33. The company plans to expand its coal-based capacity from 4.2GW in FY26 to 4.8GW in FY27E (+14% YoY) and further to 12GW by FY33, implying a CAGR 16% over FY27-33E but large part of growth is back ended. Of the existing 4.2GW operational portfolio, around 3GW (74%) is tied up under long-term contracts, while 1.1GW (26%) remains merchant exposure. The expansion (7.2GW) is expected to require equity investment of approximately INR230bn, which management intends to fund through a combination of internal accruals and capital raising at an appropriate stage. Management has guided for EBITDA to more than double from INR15bn in FY26 to INR32bn by FY28E, with nearly 90% of the incremental EBITDA expected to be contributed by the 1.2GW Athena project. With net debt of approximately INR80bn in FY26 and the stock trading at around 8x FY28E EV/EBITDA (company guided EBITDA), a discount to private sector peers at 12x+, the key investment monitorable remains the company's ability to deliver its targeted EBITDA CAGR over FY26-28E, execute the planned capacity expansion/fund raise and plans around nuclear foray.
