India Strategy – West Asia Crisis, EL Nino can play a spoil sport
Published on 10 Jul 2026
NIFTY has seen a rally of 7.3% in past 2 months and ~8% from 52-week lows mainly due to decline in crude prices to USD70/barrel and ceasefire in west Asia war. Indian economy has also been one of the most resilient one’s and 1Q27 has shown steady demand trends and credit growth at 17.3% shows the success of GOI in reducing the impact of higher crude prices and supply chain disruptions significantly. We believe that sectors like Banks, NBFC, Capital Goods/ Defence, Telecom, Jewellery, Hospitals and Consumer Durables have a positive outlook. We remain cautious on IT Services, Exports, Cement, Chemicals and Oil and Gas segments. Resumption of hostilities in west Asia and El Nino remains a key risk to our call.
