Jindal Stainless (JDSL IN) – Management Meet Update – Building the next leg of growth; Compelling value ahead – BUY

We recently interacted with the management of Jindal Stainless (JDSL) to understand its growth strategy. With rising domestic stainless steel (SS) penetration, upcoming downstream capacity addition, raw-material security from Indonesian JVs and a multi-year growth project underway, we believe JDSL is well placed to ride India’s SS growth wave, making it one of our preferred plays on the sector. India's SS consumption is expected to grow at 8-10% annually, with several of JDSL's target applications growing at 12%. As SS finds greater use across railways, metros, infrastructure, automobiles, nuclear, LNG, green hydrogen and other industrial applications, the addressable market is expanding beyond traditional consumption. Recent commissioning of its 1.2mtpa Indonesia melt shop has taken its global melt capacity to 4.2mtpa, while downstream expansion in India is increasing its ability to process, certify and customize this material for higher value applications to reach its medium-term goal of achieving 3.5mtpa sales volume. JDSL is also evaluating a 4mtpa integrated greenfield port-based facility in Maharashtra, with the first 1mtpa phase targeted for FY31E. The DPR would come in the next 2 quarters, and the management is in discussions with the Maharashtra government for land acquisition. We introduce FY29E EBITDA estimates, roll forward our valuation to Sep’28 and expect JDSL to deliver volume/EBITDA CAGR of 10%/12% over FY26-29E. Following the recent correction, the stock offers an attractive entry point at 7.7x/6.7x FY28E/29E EV/EBITDA. We maintain ‘BUY’ with revised TP of INR867 (earlier INR821) on 9x EV of Sep’28 EBITDA.