GAIL (India) (GAIL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Miss on EBITDA/PAT; volume outlook intact – BUY
Published on 02 Feb 2026
Transmission volume stood at 125.5mmscmd, up 1.5% QoQ and flat YoY, driven by higher offtake from the fertilizer, CGD and refinery segments. Trading volume stood at 104mmscmd, down 1.4% QoQ and broadly flat YoY. EBITDA declined 16.8% QoQ and 6.4% YoY to Rs26.6bn (PLe: Rs31.0bn; BBGe: Rs31.5bn), primarily due to poor performance in trading segment & higher losses in the petchem segment. PAT fell 27.7% QoQ and 58.6% YoY to Rs16.0bn (PLe: Rs19.4bn; BBGe: Rs21.6bn), impacted by the absence of one-off other income from the arbitration settlement recognized in Q3FY25. GAIL maintained transmission volume guidance of 134-135mmscmd and expects ~5% growth in trading volume in FY27 respectively. As per GAIL, the PNGRB tariff revision is expected to result in incremental transmission revenue of ~Rs12bn per annum. The stock currently trades at 12.1x/10.5x FY27/FY28E EPS. We reiterate our ‘BUY’ rating on the stock as volume guidance remains intact for FY27E and the recent price correction offers a more attractive risk & reward. We value the company at 11.0x Dec’27E EPS and add Rs40 for investments at 25% holding company discount, arriving at a TP of Rs190 (earlier Rs202).
