India – US Trade Pact: Piyush Goyal Confident of November Deadline Despite US Shutdown; India – EU FTA Talks Gain Momentum

India and US in Continuous Dialogue on Trade Pact

Mumbai | October 8

Speaking on 7 October 2025, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said discussions with the US are active at multiple levels, with both sides determined to finalise the long-pending India–US Bilateral Trade Agreement.

“There is every possibility. We will find a landing ground. We are in constant dialogue with the US (on the trade pact), and talks are on at various levels. We will give more information soon on how we are thinking to take it forward,” the minister said.

When asked whether the November deadline remains on track, Goyal replied optimistically, adding that even though the US government shutdown has caused some delays, both countries are committed to maintaining the dialogue.

He remarked in Hindi, “आप सब जानते हैं कि अमेरिका में आजकल सरकार बंद (shutdown) मोड में है, तो उसके मद्देनज़र देखना पड़ेगा कि कैसे बात-चीत हो सकती है, कहाँ हो सकती है और कब हो सकती है।”

Translated, he said: “As you all know, the US government is currently in shutdown mode. So, keeping that in mind, we’ll have to see how, where, and when the discussions can take place.”

Tariffs, Oil Trade and Strategic Balancing

The bilateral trade dialogue comes amid heightened trade tensions. The Trump administration recently imposed 25% tariffs on Indian exports, followed by an additional 25% “secondary tariff” linked to India’s oil purchases from Russia.

While the US has urged India to curb Russian crude imports, New Delhi has maintained that national interest remains paramount, signalling it is open to increasing energy imports from the US to balance trade flows.

India’s broader strategy includes diversifying its export partners by advancing talks with Oman, Qatar, Chile, and Peru, while deepening trade cooperation with Western economies.

Protecting Domestic Interests

Goyal stressed that India’s trade policy is guided by the protection of domestic industries and social sensitivities. “Any trade deal will be possible only when it safeguards the interests of our farmers and dairy sector while respecting cultural and religious sensitivities,” he said.

He reiterated that India has maintained this approach in its pacts with the UK, EFTA bloc, and Australia, and that it would apply the same principles in talks with the US.

India- EU FTA: On Track for December 2025 Conclusion

Parallel to US negotiations, Goyal confirmed that India’s Free Trade Agreement with the European Union is moving forward with constructive discussions in Brussels. “There are very good discussions going on between the EU and India. Both sides understand each other’s sensitivities. We aim to build an equitable, mutually beneficial partnership between the $20-trillion EU bloc and India, the world’s fastest-growing major economy,” he said.

He added that India and the EU complement each other well — Europe needs skilled young workers, and Indian companies seek greater access to the EU’s large consumer market. Goyal is expected to travel to Brussels later this month to accelerate talks.

“We neither do negotiations with artificial deadlines nor delay them unnecessarily. We will make every effort to complete negotiations before the end of the year,” he stated.

Sectoral Implications for Investors

The India–US trade pact and India–EU FTA could benefit export-oriented sectors, including pharma, textiles, chemicals, and engineering goods, which may see reduced tariffs and improved market access.

IT and services firms could gain from relaxed mobility norms, while automotive and component manufacturers may benefit from lower import duties and greater US demand. Energy and infrastructure players are expected to gain from expanded cooperation in renewables, LNG, and clean-tech.

These developments could enhance investor confidence, stabilise foreign inflows, and strengthen India’s rupee and export competitiveness.

The Road Ahead

Despite the disruption caused by the US government shutdown, both India and the US remain committed to advancing the trade talks. For India, finalising this pact will mark a milestone in its journey towards becoming a global manufacturing and export hub.

Simultaneously, concluding the India–EU FTA would reinforce India’s position as a strategic trade partner across two of the world’s largest markets. For investors, these developments could shape India’s trade, currency, and equity market trends in the quarters ahead.

Oil Market Outlook and Stocks to Watch

Amid the India–US trade negotiations, global energy dynamics remain closely tied to India’s economic and market outlook. According to Prabhudas Lilladher’s Oil & Gas Q2FY26 Preview (dated October 3, 2025), Brent crude averaged $69.1 per barrel — up from $68.0 in Q1FY26 — while the rupee depreciated nearly 2% against the dollar. This combination could weigh on marketing margins for Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), although LPG under-recoveries have eased sharply from ₹136 to ₹57 per cylinder, offering some cushion.

Despite incremental OPEC+ production, oil prices remain firm on account of steady demand and disruptions in Russian supplies. As India’s trade talks with the US advance, potential adjustments in energy tariffs and import policies could influence India’s refining and marketing landscape — especially if the country seeks to diversify away from Russian crude and strengthen sourcing ties with the US.

PL’s View on Sector Outlook

Prabhudas Lilladher expects refining margins to remain resilient, supported by robust diesel crack spreads (up to $18.8/bbl) and strong performance from private refiners such as Reliance Industries. However, OMC EBITDA is projected to decline by nearly 19% QoQ due to weaker marketing margins and currency depreciation. Upstream companies like ONGC and Oil India stand to benefit from stable crude prices in the $70–80/bbl range, with Oil India’s Andaman gas discovery offering a structural boost.

PL continues to favour upstream energy plays over OMCs, given margin resilience and exploration-driven growth potential.

Stocks to Watch

• Reliance Industries – Strong refining and petrochemical margins; improving diesel crack spreads support earnings momentum.
• Oil India – Beneficiary of firm crude prices; Andaman gas discovery enhances long-term growth visibility.
• ONGC – Production ramp-up from Daman field; FY26 EPS revised upward by 11%.
• Mahanagar Gas – Healthy 10% volume growth; valuation comfort post recent correction.
• Indian Oil Corp – Stable refining margins; LPG under-recovery easing boosts profitability.
• HPCL – Steady gross refining margins; improving cost efficiency and stable throughput.
• GAIL (India) – Recovery in transmission volumes and petrochemical margins expected in coming quarters.

“We remain positive on upstream companies as oil prices are likely to stay in the $70–80/bbl range despite OPEC+ supply increases,” said Swarnendu Bhushan, Senior Analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher. With diesel cracks strengthening and marketing margins narrowing, PL expects investors to focus on integrated refiners and upstream producers as India’s trade and energy policies evolve.

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