NMDC (NMDC IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Weak Q3; volume ramp up remains the key – HOLD
Published on 04 Feb 2026
We assume moderate increase in ore prices in Q4 as domestic demand improves post Dec’25 and steel prices are also on uptick. However, as global ore supply expected to increase, NMDC’s ability of taking price hikes would be tested especially when steel majors are opting for imports. On volume front, mgmt. aims to utilize maximum EC limits and recently increased production run rate from Chhattisgarh. Things to watch out for: 1) Ramp up of volumes till monsoon, 2) Planned EC additions and other capacities, 3) Karnataka bill status, and 4) ability to take price hikes. We cut our EBITDA estimates for FY26/27E by 4%/6% on lower pricing & volume assumptions. We maintain 49.4/55/61mt volumes for FY26/27/28E and expect NMDC to deliver Revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 18%/19%/16% respectively. At CMP, the stock is trading at 5.3x/4.5x EV of FY27/28E EBITDA.
