NOCIL (NOCIL IN) – Q3FY26 Result Update – Volume growth led by domestic demand – HOLD
Published on 12 Feb 2026
NOCIL reported revenue of Rs3.2bn (PLe: Rs3.2bn; Consensus: Rs3.2bn), declining 0.7% YoY and 1.5% QoQ. The topline was impacted by pricing pressure across the portfolio; however, volumes grew 2% QoQ and 11% YoY, led by domestic demand. Based on our estimates, average realization stood at Rs222/kg, reflecting a decline of 3% QoQ and 10% YoY. EBITDA/kg increased by 1% QoQ and 18% YoY, translating into an expansion of 150bps QoQ and 90bps YoY in EBITDA margin. Capacity utilization varied across product lines, with select rubber chemicals operating at elevated levels. To address rising demand for products such as TDQ antioxidants, where plants are already running at high utilization, the company is undertaking a Rs2.5bn capacity expansion. Trial production from these new capacities is expected to commence in H1CY26, while peak utilization across the expanded portfolio is likely to be achieved over the next 1.5–2 years. While near-term headwinds are expected to persist, a potential ADD on ~40% of the company’s product portfolio could provide meaningful earnings support. The stock is currently trading at ~26x FY28 EPS. We value the company at 28x Dec’27E EPS and maintain ‘HOLD’ rating with a target price of Rs159.
