Jerome Powell Speech Today: What Global Markets, Indian Investors Should Watch Ahead of Fed’s October Meet

Mumbai | October 14

Global markets are on alert as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell takes the stage later today at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting in Philadelphia. This marks Powell’s first live address since the September rate cut, and comes at a time when investors are seeking direction on the Fed’s policy path for the rest of 2025.

What Makes Powell’s Speech Crucial

The speech—scheduled during the Adam Smith Award Luncheon between 11:30 am and 1:10 pm ET—is expected to shed light on how the US central bank views the trade-off between slowing growth and sticky inflation. At last month’s policy meeting, the Fed lowered rates for the first time in 2025 but remained divided on how many cuts may follow.

Since then, the US government shutdown has paused key data releases, leaving markets largely guessing about the strength of the economy. This makes Powell’s words today the clearest signal yet on how the Fed intends to steer monetary policy into the year-end.

Investors Eye Rate-Cut Hints and Economic Outlook

Powell is likely to address the broader theme of the NABE conference — “Global Economy in Transition: Finding Opportunity Amid Disruption.” His remarks on labour market resilience, tariff-led inflation, and the timing of the next rate move could drive short-term sentiment across global equities, bonds, and currencies.

Markets currently expect a 100% probability of another rate cut in October and a strong chance of one more by December, according to CME FedWatch data. However, any suggestion that the Fed could pause or slow down could lead to profit-taking across risk assets that have rallied on the assumption of easier monetary policy.

Why Indian Investors Should Care

For Indian markets, Powell’s tone will be key to how foreign institutional investors (FIIs) behave in the short term. A dovish signal could trigger fresh inflows into IT, banking, and auto stocks, all of which benefit from stable or lower US yields. But if Powell hints at caution or delays further easing, volatility may resurface in mid- and small-cap segments that have outperformed in recent months.

With Diwali trading sentiment already upbeat and Samvat 2082 around the corner, traders are watching whether the global liquidity tide will continue to support India’s bull market.

Key Things to Track Tonight

• Powell’s tone on inflation versus growth
• Any reference to the Fed’s next rate-cut timeline
• Comments on trade tariffs and global supply chain outlook
• Indications on the Fed’s economic projections for Q4

Bottom Line

As Powell steps up for his first public appearance since the September policy shift, markets from Wall Street to Dalal Street are looking for clues. Whether he reinforces the rate-cut narrative or signals caution could define the near-term trajectory of both the US dollar and emerging-market flows — setting the tone for the next leg of global market movement.

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